<b>20XX Division:</b> <I>Round 1 - Match 10</I> – (8)Tidus vs. (9)Shadow the Hedgehog

<b>Moltar's Analysis</b>

<b>Tidus</b>

Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy X/Kingdom Hearts

Extrapolated Rank in 2002: 11th

Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 13th

Seed in 2002: 8

Seed in 2003: 5

Lost to Sonic in Round 2 in 2002 to Ganondorf in Round 1in 2003.

Lost early in both Contests, yet still ranks up pretty high.

Another character we love to hate...at least at the Contest board. We can make fun of him all we want, but we can't stop his strength in the Contest.

<b>Shadow</b>

Game/Series Known From: Sonic Series

Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A

Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 12th

Seed in 2002: N/A

Seed in 2003: 9

Got 45% of the vote against a top-tier character

Alright, Shadow made it back. But like Tidus, he is a bit underseeded.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=984

I'd like to start my Analysis with that poll from 2002. Tidus vs. Sonic. As you can see, Sonic won by a pretty comfortable margin. If this poll was held back then, and if Sonic was about the same strength as Shadow, it would be easy to choose who wins. However, there are 2 big things that have happened since this match that have helped Tidus.

<b>1. Kingdom Hearts:</b> Now Tidus didn't get a huge boost like Cloud of Sephiroth did, but he did get

a boost nonetheless. He went from getting whooped by Sonic in 2002, to nearly taking down Ganondorf the next year, who some say could beat Sonic now. Speaking of the hedgehog...

<b>2. Sonic's Downfall:</b> In 2002, Sonic lost to Samus by only 34 votes. Samus then went on to lose to Sephiroth by around 5,000 votes. This means that a match between Sephiroth and Sonic would have had a similar result. In 2003, Sonic beat Zero by only 4,000 votes and Aeris by only 6,000 votes. Then he goes on to get doubled by Cloud. Replace Cloud with Sephiroth in that last sentence to see how a Sonic/Sephiroth would have played out. Sonic has definitely lost some steam.

Now some may be asking, what does this have to do with Tidus and Shadow? I am trying to say, that Shadow in 2003 ranked around Sonic in 2003. The weaker Sonic of 2003. So the stats point to Tidus with an easy victory, right? Wrong. There is one big thing that hasn't been mentioned yet.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1345

<b>Shadow vs. Mario:</b> Remember that match? Shadow wasn't even supposed to make it out of Round 1, yet he gave Wario a beating. Shadow then went on to get 45% of the vote on Mario. The same Shadow who wasn't even the favorite to win his Round 1 match, just lost by only 11,000 votes to Mario. Now Mario isn't a favorite among many people at GameFAQs. His controversial matches in the past have made him a multitude of enemies and cause him to get anti-voted in his matches, even against the weakest of opponents. But you can't blame Shadow getting that much on Mario by just anti-votes alone.

Shadow also has another thing going for him. The Picture Factor. A lot of characters don't get this boost, but Shadow is one of them. He would get the picture advantage over 90% of the opposition in the Contest Some say the only reason he won in 2003 against Wario was because of his match pic. Tidus can never get a really good pic, so Shadow has the advantage here. Sure he might just be Sonic painted in black with red stripes on his head, but that makes him look badass. And if you look badass, people will vote for you. See: Auron

So basically, this is a tough match to call. Look at them in the rankings. They're practically even. Tidus can be compared to Ganondorf and Magus, while Shadow can be compared to Sonic. I would choose Sonic to beat both Magus and Ganondorf in polls, so I would also choose Shadow to beat Tidus. This match can go either way. In fact, the only reasons I haven't been flip-flopping my winner for the match are because...

1. Shadow is one of my favorite Video game characters. I'm just a sucker for the Sonic series.

2. I promised Ulti I wouldn't. =P

<b>Moltar's Bracket Says:</b> Shadow will win.

<b>Moltar's Prediction is:</b> Tidus 49% - Shadow 51%

<b>Dp's Analysis</b>

Let's bring the contestants down to the floor for their "trial" to see who will win. First, we have 8-seeded Tidus, star of Final Fantasy X. He faces off against 9-seeded Shadow the Hedgehog from the Sonic the Hedgehog series. This should be an interesting match up. Bring in the evidence!

Exhibit A: Poll #965 - Summer Contest 2002 first round match up between 8-seeded Tidus and 9-seeded Claire Redfield. Tidus pulled out a 55.46%-44.54% victory. Not too impressive of a win considering the opponent.

Exhibit B: Poll #984 - Summer Contest 2002 second round match up between 1-seeded Sonic the Hedgehog and 8-seeded Tidus. Sonic wins 58.83%-41.17%, a percentage that is quite difficult for Tidus to overcome against the slightly less popular Shadow.

Exhibit C: Poll #1307 - Summer Contest 2003 first round match up between 5-seeded Tidus and 12-seeded Ganondorf. Tidus gets a nice seeding boost, but all that did was make him look even worse as he loses 50.68%-49.32%.

Exhibit D: Poll #1322 - Summer Contest 2003 first round match up between 8-seeded Wario and 9-seeded Shadow. As a 9-seed last year, Shadow shocked everyone as he defeated Wario 64.9%-35.1%. Will he put up similar numbers as a 9-seed again?

Exhibit E: Poll #1330 - Summer Contest 2003 first round match up between 8-seeded Knuckles the Echidna and 9-seeded Yuna. This is a match that should be quite similar to the match at hand: a slightly-less-popular-than-Sonic star of the Sonic the Hedgehog series against one of the main characters of Final Fantasy X. Well, Knuckles defeated Yuna 55.32%-44.68%

Exhibit F: Poll #1345 - Summer Contest 2003 second round match up between 1-seeded Mario and 9-seeded Shadow. In a match that Shadow had no business in making it close, he made it close. Mario was only able to win 55.1%-44.9% in a match that showed Shadow's surprising strength and even brought about arguments that Shadow might be stronger than Sonic.

Exhibit G: Poll #1356 - Summer Contest 2003 third round match up between 2-seeded Sonic the Hedgehog and 11-seeded Aeris Gainsborough. As the main character, it can be agreed that Sonic is more popular than Shadow. Also, it can be agreed that Aeris is a more popular Final Fantasy character than Tidus, so this match may also give insight to our match at hand. Sonic beat Aeris 53.02%-46.98%.

The evidence has been brought to our attention, and the jury has made their decision: Shadow the Hedgehog will defeat Tidus. While Final Fantasy has shown to be the most dominant series, it does not mean all of its characters will be dominant. Mid-level characters such as Tidus are vulnerable, especially against a character from the loved Sonic the Hedgehog series. Sonic the Hedgehog characters can defeat and have defeated Final Fantasy characters, with examples being Sonic over Aeris, Sonic over Tidus, as well as Knuckles over Tidus' fellow FFX character Yuna. This may be one of the most disputed of the first round matches, as 8-9 matches should be, but I have no doubt in my mind that Shadow will win.

<b>DpOblivion's Bracket says:</b> Shadow the Hedgehog

<b>DpOblivion's Prediction is:</b> Shadow over Tidus 53%-47%

<b>Ulti's Analysis</b>

Finally, a match worthy of looking into. On the surface, at least.

Let me ask you guys something. If Servbot were to go up against, say, a Fox or a Crash Bandicoot, who would you choose? Yeah, it's no contest.

Okay, so how about if Morrigan Aensland were to go up against a Squall or a Scorpion? No contest again, right?

So why is Shadow, who is just another character who has overperformed against Mario, getting so much support all of a sudden? He is nothing more than another character being overestimated because of a good past performance, and this match should prove that extrapolated standings can't tell the entire story. It's a shame that Tidus will never get the support he deserves, and I wonder if things would be different had he taken down Ganondorf and/or Magus last year.

<b>Ulti's Bracket/Prediction</b> - Tidus/Tidus with 54.22%

<b>Cena's Analysis</b>

Here we go. Finally a match that could possibly go either way. As much as we all loathe Tidus, he's a Final Fantasy character and will do better than most of you want him to. Last year, he had Ganondorf by his ass the whole day. Yeah, you heard me. The Great Ganon almost got beat by Meg Ryan. Think about that for a second. And statistically speaking, I believe, Ganon > Shadow. This could pose a problem for the dark hedgehog who took a nice chunk from Mario last year. But honestly, I think Shadow's got the fanbase, and the anti-FF votes to pull this "upset" off. At least, let's pray to God he does.

<b>Cena's Vote:</b> Shadow

<b>Cena's Prediction:</b> Shadow with 53% (I'm very skeptical about this, after looking at the stats)